Opinion

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Finance

The $91 Billion Refund Wave That Wall Street Hasn't Priced In

JPMorgan projects a 0.5-0.8% GDP boost in Q1 from refunds and withholding relief alone. Most equity analysts are still modeling around this consumption wave, not through it. The mispricing won't last two quarters.

By Marcus Cole · 3 min read

Finance

The Passive Investing 'Bubble' Theory Keeps Losing to Earnings Growth

The passive investing bubble narrative crumbles against five consecutive quarters of double-digit S&P 500 earnings growth. The Mag 7 posted 27.2% earnings growth in Q4 2025. Concentration in the market's best companies is a feature, not a flaw.

By Marcus Cole · 5 min read

Finance

14% Earnings Growth Is the Only Number That Matters in 2026

The S&P 500 is projecting 14.4% earnings growth in 2026, and five consecutive quarters of double-digit results are already in the books. The valuation warnings are not wrong about the math. They are just wrong about what drives markets over time.

By Marcus Cole · 4 min read