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Finance

The $140 Billion Default Wave Nobody Priced Into Consumer Credit

Over 5.5 million Americans are already in default on $140 billion in federal student loans, with delinquency rates nearly triple pre-pandemic levels. The credit score destruction sweeping through millions of borrowers has a downstream address: consumer spending, mortgage origination, auto lending, and the regional banks exposed to all three.

By Ray Vega · 4 min read

Finance

The 2.46% Default Rate Is a Lie and the Real Number Should Terrify You

Private credit's headline 2.46% default rate obscures a true distress rate approaching 5.7%, with 40% of borrowers running negative free cash flow. The interconnection between this $3 trillion market and the banking system is the risk nobody wants to quantify.

By Ray Vega · 5 min read