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Finance

The Soft Landing Depends on a Consumer Who Doesn't Exist

Real spending growth of 2.1% sounds healthy until you ask who is doing the spending. The bottom quartile of earners is already losing ground to 4.1% inflation, and a single energy shock could turn a fracture into a break.

By Ray Vega · 3 min read

Finance

The $91 Billion Refund Wave That Wall Street Hasn't Priced In

JPMorgan projects a 0.5-0.8% GDP boost in Q1 from refunds and withholding relief alone. Most equity analysts are still modeling around this consumption wave, not through it. The mispricing won't last two quarters.

By Marcus Cole · 3 min read