The Seattle Seahawks are +800 to repeat at BetMGM. That's the shortest number on the board. And it's also the longest odds for a preseason favorite on record since at least 1977.

Read that again. The favorite is at 8-to-1. This is the most wide-open Super Bowl futures market I've ever seen, and if you're not at least thinking about placing early action, you're leaving potential value on the table.

But here's the thing: you need to be smart about it. The public is already flooding in on Seattle, and the books are happy to take their money. Let me show you where the real edges are hiding.

The Board Is Begging for Longshots

First, some context on why this market looks the way it does. The Seahawks just demolished the Patriots 29-13 in Super Bowl LX after entering last season as +6000 longshots. New England was even longer at 80-1 before the year. That Super Bowl matchup was the first since the 1981 49ers and Bengals to feature both teams with preseason title odds of 50-1 or longer. The NFL just served everyone a reminder that the favorite is almost never the answer.

And yet, recency bias is a powerful drug. TheScoreBet reports that the Seahawks have already taken 21.2% of bets and a massive 33.8% of the early handle. The Rams are pulling 12.9% of wagers. That's over a third of all early money sitting on just two NFC West teams.

You know what that means. Fade the public. Always.

Here's the current landscape at the top of the board: Seattle +800, LA Rams +900, Buffalo and Baltimore at +1200, Green Bay and Philly at +1400, and then a logjam at +1500 featuring the Patriots, Chiefs, Lions, and Chargers. A full 17 of 32 teams sit at 30-1 or better. That parity is real, and it's where the math starts working in your favor.

Three Bets I'm Making Right Now

Green Bay Packers +1400. This is my favorite number on the entire board. The Packers were the NFL's youngest team for the third consecutive season, and Jordan Love became just the sixth QB in history with four passing touchdowns and zero interceptions in a road playoff game. Across the last three seasons, only Love and 2025 MVP Matthew Stafford have posted at least nine wins, 20-plus touchdowns, and fewer than 12 interceptions. Green Bay's injury luck was atrocious in 2025. Even slightly better health in 2026 makes them an NFC and Super Bowl contender. At 14-1, the market is still treating them like a second-tier team. They're not.

New England Patriots +1500. Yes, I know. They just got smoked 29-13 in the big game. But Drake Maye is still on his rookie deal, they have $37.74 million in projected cap space (11th in the NFL), and most of their top contributors remain under contract. The knock? They played a weak schedule in 2025 and got sacked an NFL-record 21 times in the postseason. That offensive line needs serious investment. But here's the thing: they went from 80-1 to the Super Bowl in one season. At 15-1, the books are essentially saying New England's championship-game run was a fluke. I disagree. Maye is legit, and that defense is young. Small play, 1% of bankroll.

Kansas City Chiefs +1500. This is the one that raises eyebrows. Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL in Week 15, and the recovery timeline is roughly nine months, which would put him back around Week 2 or 3 of next season. His own words: he wants to be ready for Week 1. The Chiefs went 6-8 in 2025, missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014, and have a projected negative-$35.5 million in cap space. Travis Kelce may retire. Andy Reid turns 68. This looks like a disaster. And that's exactly why I'm interested. The market is pricing in peak chaos. If Mahomes returns healthy by October and KC makes even modest roster upgrades, 15-1 will look absurd by midseason. I'm not betting the current roster. I'm betting on mean reversion and the best quarterback of his generation with a chip on his shoulder.

The Traps to Avoid

Don't bet Seattle at +800. The defending champ almost never repeats, and you're paying a premium on a team the public has already pushed down. Sportsbooks manage futures risk by increasing the hold percentage to roughly 20%, compared to the typical 5% on game spreads. You need longer odds to overcome that built-in edge.

Don't bet the Rams at +900 just because Stafford is coming back. He's another year older. So is Davante Adams. The NFC West will be a dogfight again, and at single-digit odds you're not getting compensated for the risk.

And for the love of your bankroll, don't throw $2,500 on the Bengals beating the Cowboys at 500-1 like one bettor at DraftKings just did. That's not a bet. That's a prayer wrapped in a parlay costume.

My buddy Rook would tell you betting on games before they're even scheduled is insane. He's half right. It is insane. But here's the other half: one bettor placed $50,000 on Seattle at 60-1 last August and cashed nearly $4.5 million. Another had $10,000 on the Patriots at 80-1. Futures are a long game. The edge is patience, position sizing, and waiting for the market to hand you a gift.

Lock of the week: Green Bay +1400. Best combination of talent floor, age curve, and schedule luck potential on the board.

Dart throw: Jacksonville Jaguars +2000. They went from 4-13 to 13-4 under Liam Coen in one year. That kind of coaching bump doesn't vanish overnight, and 20-1 is the shortest Jags preseason number since 2018. Something's brewing in Duval.

Size your bets at 1% of your bankroll or less. Spread across three or four teams. Then wait for the draft, free agency, and training camp injuries to create your next wave of plays. The futures market rewards the patient, punishes the emotional, and eats the overconfident alive.

The window is open. Walk through it. Carefully.