Tyler Linderbaum signed for $27 million a year. The previous record for a center was $18 million. That is not a market correction; that is John Spytek getting taken to the cleaners in broad daylight while calling it a strategy.
I want to be clear about what the Raiders actually did this offseason, because the ESPN ranking of 7th most improved has people acting like Las Vegas is a lock for January football. They fixed their linebacker room, which was, per the research, "unspeakably poor" in 2025. Quay Walker and Nakobe Dean together cost $76.5 million over 3 years. Both deals are below market for comparable linebackers. That is genuinely good work. Spytek found value, doubled up, and addressed a real weakness. Credit where it is due.
But the Linderbaum deal is a different animal entirely.
When the Agent Wins, You Lose
ESPN called it one of the biggest "agent win" deals of the cycle. Linderbaum is excellent. He is also a center, a position where the market had been suppressed for years. Paying 150% of Creed Humphrey's deal to reset that market is not savvy roster building; it is the Raiders getting excited and overbidding because they had cap space burning a hole in their pocket. Spytek's own quote tells the story: "we tried to make him an offer he couldn't refuse." That is not how you describe a disciplined negotiation. That is how you describe a team that wanted a headline.
The rationale is protecting a rookie quarterback. Fine. I understand the logic. A franchise center matters. But $27 million per year is a number that will look ugly in year 2 when that rookie is either developing or already a problem, and the Raiders are locked into a contract that eats cap space they could have used on edge or defensive tackle, which are still unresolved.
Jalen Nailor at $35 million over 3 years is another one. Spytek said they were "trying to find a good player at that position." That is not a ringing endorsement of a $35 million commitment.
The Line on This Team Is Still Wrong
Here is where I get conspiratorial, because that is what I do at 11pm when the lines drop.
The public is going to price the Raiders as a fringe playoff team based on the ESPN ranking and the Linderbaum splash. Sharp money will fade them. The AFC West has the Chiefs, who do not care about your offseason grades. The Raiders went into 2025 as a predicted turnaround candidate and got worse. NFL.com has them on the 2026 rebound list again. I have seen this movie.
The defense could genuinely be top-10 if Maxx Crosby stays healthy and the linebacker upgrades hold. That is a real possibility. But "could be top-10 defense" plus "record-priced center" plus "unproven rookie QB" plus "Nailor as your big receiver addition" does not add up to a team I am taking at plus money to make the playoffs.
Bet the Raiders to miss the playoffs at whatever number the books open. The offseason grade is a B-minus at best: smart linebacker work, one genuine overpay at center, one questionable receiver deal, and a roster that is still two or three pieces short of competing in the West. The market will inflate their win total on the Linderbaum hype. That is the edge.
7th most improved is not a seed. It is a line to bet against.
