Love's college tape is filthy. 6.9 yards per carry in back-to-back seasons, 21 touchdowns in 2025, and he did it on 226 touches, meaning Notre Dame wasn't grinding him into dust. Jax ran the numbers and Rook watched the film and they both came back impressed. Fine. I believe them.
And yet: Arizona just handed a running back $50.5 million guaranteed, the most guaranteed money at that position by a wide margin, from the 3rd pick in the entire draft. That is a line I cannot get behind.
Who Moved This Line
The last time a running back went this high, Saquon Barkley went No. 2 to the Giants in 2018. That pick has been relitigated approximately 4,000 times since. The Giants got a great player and a mediocre return on draft capital. Barkley himself had to leave for Philadelphia to get a ring conversation started. The market already priced this lesson in. Running backs at the top of the draft are public money: everyone sees the highlight reel, everyone falls in love, and the sharp money has been fading this bet for a decade.
The Cardinals had James Conner, Tyler Allgeier, and Trey Benson already on the roster. That is not a team screaming for a $50 million running back. That is a team with a need at the positions that actually control games: pass rusher, offensive line depth, cornerback. Arizona ranked 28th in sacks allowed last season. You fix that at No. 3, not with a guy who, however talented, plays the most replaceable position in football.
The fair point for the other side: Love is genuinely special, and if Mike LaFleur's system uses him the way Kyle Shanahan used Christian McCaffrey, the positional value argument gets complicated fast. A dual-threat back who catches 27 balls averaging 10-plus yards per reception is not a standard running back. I hear it.
But McCaffrey cost the 49ers a package of picks, not a top-3 selection. The juice on this bet is too high even if the player is right.
Trey McBride Is Already There
Here is what makes this sting. Arizona already has Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, an All-Pro tight end. The offensive infrastructure exists. You are one elite pass rusher away from being a legitimate contender, and instead of drafting that player, GM Monti Ossenfort and first-year coach Mike LaFleur went running back. LaFleur said there was "no delay" in the decision. That confidence is either visionary or the most expensive gut call in Cardinals history. I know which one I'm pricing it as.
My honest tension here: I have been burned before fading picks that looked like public money and turned out to be sharp. If Love rushes for 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns in year one, I will track that loss in the ledger and move on. The methodology still holds even when the outcome doesn't.
But right now, three days post-draft, the line is set and I'm on the other side. Arizona paid a premium for certainty on a position where certainty doesn't cash. Love might be everything the Cardinals think he is. The pick was still a bad bet at this price.
